Bjorn Lomborg's new book detailing the results of the Copenhagen Consensus 2004 expert panel of world-leading economists is now out. For those of you who don't already know, the idea was to do a cost benefit analysis of potential solutions to major world problems and prioritise them accordingly. The experts have responded to the question: if we had an extra $50 billion to spend to improve the world, what should we do first? Here the panel unanimously recommends that $27 billion should be spent combating HIV/AIDS, $12 billion for malnutrition, that there should be free trade which will have very low costs, and that $13 billion should be spent combating malaria. This very original and innovative approach to global issues saw a Nobel prize laden panel of economists conclude that combating HIV/AIDS should be at the top of the world's priority list. 28 million cases could be prevented by 2010. The cost would be $27 billion, with benefits almost forty times as high. Spending assigned to this would yield extraordinarily high benefits. Although the costs are considerable, they are tiny in relation to what can be gained. Furthermore, the scale and urgency of the problem is extreme, especially in Africa where entire societies are threatened with collapse.

Hunger is number two on the expert’s list. Diseases caused by iron, zinc, iodine and vitamin A deficiency can be resolved by providing micro-nutrients. This would have an exceptionally high ratio of benefits to cost. The experts recommend investing $12 billion to resolve this problem. “Today 3.5 billion people lack iron. It is extremely important to do something about malnourishment, especially among children. I give that proposal a very high priority,” said Nobel Laureate Professor Douglass North, of Washington University in Saint Louis.

Free trade is number three on the expert list. The costs will be very low, the benefits will be extremely high – up to $2400 billion a year. “Free trade will benefit both rich and poor countries,” said Nobel Laureate Robert Fogel, University of Chicago. “Trade barriers do not require a big investment to produce a large return. Here, we need political will – and the return will be huge. The entire world’s economy will benefit from free trade, and more wealth will mean that we can afford to solve more of the world’s greatest challenges.”

Besides HIV/AIDS, malnutrition and free trade, options to ameliorate malaria and the lack of water and sanitation were highly ranked by the “dream team” of economists. The experts have in total discussed 38 possible solutions to ten of the world’s greatest problems. They chose to rank 17 of these solutions, as they found there was insufficient information on the others. They divided the 17 into “Very Good,” “Good,” “Fair” and “Bad” projects.

The Economist co-sponsored Copenhagen Consensus 2004. Deputy Editor Clive Crook, who took part in the experts’ meetings, said: “The starting point of Copenhagen Consensus is that the world faces many problems, and we cannot afford to solve them all, here and now. The positive message from the experts is that there are some extraordinarily good solutions. HIV/AIDS, malnutrition, trade barriers, and malaria – these are problems that can be addressed effectively."

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